Putting the World’s Economy to the Vote

In 2024, the global stage is set for a landmark year in electoral politics, with 64 countries plus the European Union slated to hold elections. Spanning multiple continents, according to an article from Time, they encompass a combined 49% of the world's population and stand as a testament to the universal pursuit of governance through the ballot. Amidst this global democratic exercise, several key elections are poised to have profound implications, not just domestically but on the international stage, influencing global politics, economics, and security.

Key Global Elections in 2024

United States Presidential Election

Slated for November 2024, this election is arguably the most closely watched electoral event worldwide. Given the U.S.'s significant role in global affairs, the outcome of this election will have far-reaching implications on international relations, trade policies, and climate change efforts. The election will determine whether the incumbent party retains control of the White House or if a new administration will chart a different course domestically and internationally.

European Parliament Elections

The European Parliament elections, expected in June 2024, are another critical event. These elections will not only shape the future direction of the European Union's policies but also influence its stance on issues ranging from migration to digital regulation, and its relationships with major powers like the U.S., China, and Russia. The composition of the next European Parliament will be crucial in determining the EU's ability to tackle these challenges collectively.

Indian General Elections

India, the world's largest democracy, is anticipated to hold its general elections in 2024. The elections will decide the composition of the Lok Sabha, the lower house of India's bicameral parliament, and will significantly impact the country's future economic policies, social reforms, and foreign policy direction. Given India's growing economic clout and strategic importance in the Indo-Pacific region, the outcome of these elections will be closely monitored by global powers.

Brazilian General Elections

Brazil is expected to conduct its general elections in October 2024, electing the president, Congress, and state governors. As Latin America's largest economy and a leading emerging market, Brazil's political trajectory will influence regional trade agreements, environmental policies, especially concerning the Amazon rainforest, and its role in international forums like BRICS and the United Nations.

Elections Amidst Geopolitical Unrest: Russia, Ukraine, Taiwan, and Iran

The elections in Russia, Ukraine, Taiwan, and Iran will be set against a backdrop of geopolitical unrest and conflict, making them exceptionally significant.

Russia: Amid ongoing international tensions and sanctions, Russia's elections will be closely scrutinized for their impact on the country's political stability and foreign policy.

Ukraine: As Ukraine continues to navigate challenges posed by conflict and territorial disputes, its elections are crucial for the country's democratic resilience and its aspirations for European integration.

Taiwan: Taiwan's elections occur amidst increasing cross-strait tensions with China, with significant implications for regional security and U.S.-China relations.

Iran: Iran's electoral process will be pivotal in determining the country's future direction, especially regarding its nuclear program and relations with Western powers.

Other Notable Elections

Several other countries will also have elections that, while may not have the same global impact as those mentioned, will nonetheless be significant on a regional scale or indicate important shifts in domestic policies. These include parliamentary elections in South Africa and presidential elections in Indonesia—each having implications for democratic governance, economic reforms, and international alignments in their respective regions.

Asset Allocation in Election Years

An Investopedia reader survey shows 2024 Elections Top Reader’s Fears for investments over the next 12 months. The political outcomes of these elections are poised to catalyse shifts in policy directions, regulatory environments, and geopolitical landscapes, all of which bear significant implications for investment strategies.

The year 2024 promises to be a watershed moment for global politics, marked by the election of controversial leaders and the potential for policy upheaval. In this environment, volatility is to be expected, underscoring the critical role of diversification and private markets in investment strategies. As traditional markets may experience heightened uncertainty, private markets can offer a diversified avenue for investment, capable of navigating the complexities of the global political landscape.

Until next month,

Calvin Ng

Managing Director

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